Overview
We are developing the TIMES-Saudi Arabia model, a tailored energy systems model based on the TIMES framework. This model encompasses one region and six key sectors: upstream, power generation, transportation, industry, commercial, and residential. In addition, we created and tested various energy system scenarios. These scenarios enable the evaluation of policy decisions, emerging technologies, and environmental constraints, helping shape the future of Saudi Arabia’s energy system. As part of the work, we prepared an operational user manual describing the model and how to use it. Additionally, we provided training and operated a help desk for technical support.
Background
Since 2016 and guided by the National Vision 2030, the energy transition in Saudi Arabia has moved forward. Saudi Arabia has said it aims to reach net zero emissions by 2060. The country has set a target of generating 50 percent of its power from clean energy sources by 2030. Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman announced this target as part of the Saudi Green Initiative. The TIMES-Saudi Arabia energy systems model can support Saudi decision-makers and energy planners in designing the policies needed to reach the said targets. The model can generate forecasts of the domestic energy demand under several scenarios, including those in line with carbon targets, e.g., the Paris Agreement. The model can also be used to detect energy transition trends and to develop technology roadmaps. Also, the model allows for evaluating the implications of national climate change plans on energy demand.
Model
The TIMES-Saudi Arabia model is an integrated assessment model. We have created and designed it using the TIMES modelling framework, the well-established modelling platform hosted by the IEA-ETSAP community. The TIMES-Saudi Arabia model is developed with the user interface VEDA2.0 for data handling and the GAMS/CPLEX modelling language and optimizer.
The model features multiple sectoral details. For example, the upstream sector includes the design of all the refineries in the country. The power generation sector is designed by softlinking the power system structure and future design with the client power system model. It represents multiple plant types, such as combined cycle power plants, and gas turbines by type of fuel consumed. Moreover, hydrogen and synthetic fuel production are also included in the model.
The demand sectors present various levels of granularity like the disaggregation by type of mode and by fleet-size of transport technologies. Also, a detailed design of the main high-intensive industries, like cement, iron and steel, chemical, and petrochemical industry sectors are presented.
Moreover, the demand for multiple building energy services in residential and commercial sectors is represented. A general representation of the water demand module is also included in the model. Additionally, all the sectors include a detailed technology repository for future technologies from standard to advanced processes (e.g., hydrogen and synthetic fuels transport vehicles, and CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage).
| Country: Saudi Arabia
| Duration: 2023-2024
| Activities: Model development, scenario analysis, capacity building, technical support
| Contact: e4sma@e4sma.com
Illustration credit: Freepik
