EU multi-model analysis

We have prepared a report on the results of a multi-model analysis of the transformations of the EU energy system 2030-2050.

The EU multi-model analysis was carried out to support the evaluation of the 2040 climate target foreseen by the European Climate Law.

The evaluation contributed to the impact assessment report “Securing Our Future – Europe’s 2040 climate target and path to climate neutrality by 2050 building a sustainable, just and prosperous society”, published by the EU Commission in February 2024.

In this policy milestone the Commission recommends a 90% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2040 compared to 1990 levels.

Scope

2040 constitutes a key milestone on the road to climate neutrality in the EU as 2040 marks the beginning of the last decade in the run-up to 2050. The most challenging and costly emissions reductions are expected to be implemented in this last decade. Therefore, the vision for 2040 needs to be as robust as possible to make the right policy and technology choices. Combined with careful scenario analysis, energy system models enable analysts and policymakers to identify the most promising emissions reduction measures.

Models and methodology

To reach the most robust results possible, we used three different models to analyze a main decarbonization scenario. We compared the results and explored agreements and discrepancies. In the main decarbonization scenario, the EU will reach climate neutrality by 2050. The EU will also meet the 2030 targets and stay in a narrow range of emissions levels in 2040. The scenario was developed in close collaboration with the Directorate-General for Climate Action.

E4SMA leveraged the EU-TIMES energy system model to analyze the main decarbonization scenario. Our partner Enerdata used the POLES-Enerdata model. Our partners Artelys and ENGIE Impact used the AMADEUS-METIS model cluster. All three models are well-established partial equilibrium models of the EU energy sector.